When bull markets end, they seldom go gentle into the night. As the market turns down, sharp rallies can occur, inflicting enormous pain on anyone underweight or short the declining asset class....
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Markets in Motion
Markets in Motion – Glass Half Empty or Glass Half Full?
As we enter the second half of 2023, the S&P Total Return Index is up 16.9% and is now just 5.6% from making a new all-time high. Looking at the chart to the right…
Markets in Motion – The Great Consolidation
Over the past few weeks, equities have largely moved sideways. But it is not just the past few weeks that have been a wash. Zooming out on the S&P 500 shows that it is now trading at roughly the same level as it was in May of 2021 and May of 2022.
Markets In Motion – Something Broke
A few weeks ago we shared our thoughts on the SVB collapse and the regional bank crisis (link). As we enter the fourth week of this crisis, we can begin to draw more conclusions. First, banks do not seem to have the same balance sheet problems as in 2008.
Markets In Motion – A New Bull Market?
Animal spirits are alive and well as financial conditions have eased considerably the past few months – lower dollar, lower yields, lower volatility. Add reduced inflationary pressure and a more dovish Federal Reserve — that equals a significant rally in global equities.
Markets in Motion: Looking Ahead to 2023
First off … thank you! The year is almost over and we are grateful to all our Advisors, Fiduciaries, Brokers, and Partners who trust us with your business. We love being able to do this every day and look forward to the future.
Trick or Treat? Fed Not Ready to Pivot
In our last Markets in Motion, we discussed that the Fed is unlikely to pivot from their aggressive monetary tightening. Since then, Fed speakers have reiterated that stance. Another theme is that...
Markets in Motion – A Game of Chicken: Who Blinks First?
After a strong rally since the beginning of summer, stocks began to retreat after the S&P 500 rejected its 200-day moving average last week. The focus has returned to the macro backdrop, with a series of weak activity readings across the global economy. US housing data remains extremely weak with mortgage rates moving up again, mortgage applications falling, and other metrics continuing to miss. To add to that, July inflation came in lower than expected and decelerated.
Markets in Motion – Not Out of the Woods… Yet
Major stock indices crossed some key technical thresholds, and interest rates and commodities pulled back sharply as economic concerns really start to pile up ahead of a hawkish Federal Reserve....
Markets in Motion – Bear Market Edition
Every month, our investment committee holds a meeting to discuss the most important issues driving the macroeconomy and financial markets. This month’s meeting was especially pertinent as it comes...
Markets in Motion — Inversion! Time to Start the Recession Clock?
The 2-year vs 10-year yield curve has inverted for the first time since 2019. Historically, when this curve inverts there has been a better than two-thirds chance of a recession at some point in the next year and a greater than 98% chance of a recession at some point in the next two years.
Markets in Motion — A New Cold War?
Nation-state level war has returned to Europe. After weeks of escalation, Russian President Putin announced the invasion of Ukraine, citing protection of breakaway “republics” close to Russia as cassus belli while pledging to “demilitarize and de-nazify” the country…
