A few weeks ago we shared our thoughts on the SVB collapse and the regional bank crisis (link). As we enter the fourth week of this crisis, we can begin to draw more conclusions. First, banks do not seem to have the same balance sheet problems as in 2008.

Animal spirits are alive and well as financial conditions have eased considerably the past few months – lower dollar, lower yields, lower volatility. Add reduced inflationary pressure and a more dovish Federal Reserve — that equals a significant rally in global equities.

After a strong rally since the beginning of summer, stocks began to retreat after the S&P 500 rejected its 200-day moving average last week. The focus has returned to the macro backdrop, with a series of weak activity readings across the global economy. US housing data remains extremely weak with mortgage rates moving up again, mortgage applications falling, and other metrics continuing to miss. To add to that, July inflation came in lower than expected and decelerated.